{"id":3116,"date":"2011-10-17T11:21:44","date_gmt":"2011-10-17T19:21:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fogcityjournal.com\/wordpress\/?p=3116"},"modified":"2017-08-17T19:11:49","modified_gmt":"2017-08-18T03:11:49","slug":"bay-citizen-poll-the-mayors-race-is-over-ed-lees-your-next-mayor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fogcityjournal.com\/wordpress\/3116\/bay-citizen-poll-the-mayors-race-is-over-ed-lees-your-next-mayor\/","title":{"rendered":"Bay Citizen Poll: The Mayor\u2019s Race is Over, Ed Lee\u2019s Your Next Mayor"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"

Interim Mayor Ed Lee will be your next elected mayor of San Francisco, according to a poll published today by The Bay Citizen online news organization. File photo by Luke Thomas.<\/p><\/div>\n

By Luke Thomas<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Editor’s note: This article has been updated since its initial publication.<\/em><\/p>\n

October 17, 2011<\/p>\n

Mayoral contenders take note.\u00a0 Close your campaign offices, pay up your outstanding debts, cry and go home.\u00a0 The race for mayor is over.\u00a0 Interim Mayor Ed Lee will be crowned San Francisco\u2019s next elected mayor.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the questionable takeaway message one gets a from the latest poll<\/a> published by the Bay Citizen and the University of San Francisco in the early hours of Monday morning, the results of which has Lee the projected winner after 9 rounds of ranked-choice ballot tabulations<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cVoters across the City continue to give broad and strong support to Mayor Lee because they already know what he has accomplished so far as Mayor this year and agree with his focus on creating jobs for the future,\u201d said Lee campaign manager Bill Barnes. \u201cWe\u2019re pleased the poll confirms what our volunteers are hearing on the ground, but we knows polls don\u2019t vote, people do. Our campaign takes nothing for granted and we\u2019re working hard every day to elect Mayor Ed Lee to a full term and keep San Francisco\u2019s economy on the right track.\u201d<\/p>\n

New Jersey-based Maximum Research, Inc conducted the poll of 551 likely registered voters between October 7 and October 13. The poll was commissioned and paid for by the Bay Citizen at a cost of $10,000, confirmed newly minted Bay Citizen managing editor Steve Fainaru.<\/p>\n

Raw data from the poll, including the questions asked and the respondents\u2019 responses, is expected be made available online later this week, said Bay Citizen political reporter Gerry Shih<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The BayCitizen<\/a>, a non-profit founded in January 2010, has built a reputation of being one of the most objective and cutting-edge news organizations serving the Bay Area. Billionaire philanthropist Warren Hellman, The Fisher Family, Evelyn & Walter Haas, Jr. Fund, Mimi and Peter Haas Fund, William and Elizabeth Patterson Foundation, Jeff and Laurie Ubben and Diane B. Wilsey, among others, funds it.<\/p>\n

Fog City Journal sent emails to the campaigns of the leading mayoral contenders to gauge their responses to the poll and what, if anything, they plan to do to combat what appears to be foregone conclusion. Here\u2019s what they had to say:<\/p>\n

Michela Alioto-Pier<\/strong><\/p>\n

“In the span of a couple days, we’ve gotten more hints that Ed Lee is illegally coordinating with an independent expenditure, and news that every major candidate except Michela has violated the city’s campaign finance laws,” said Alioto-Pier campaign spokesperson Sterling Clifford.\u00a0 “There’s a lot to communicate to voters and enough time to do it. Remember, the poll showed almost a quarter of the electorate undecided. ”<\/p>\n

Supervisor John Avalos<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWe had hundreds of people on the street on Saturday and all of our phones were full at the same time,\u201d said Supervisor John Avalos.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have more people coming in the door every day.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are campaigning to build progressive power and an alternative to the establishment which gives tax breaks to $7 billion companies like Twitter, representing the 1%. Ron Conway is a billionaire, a twitter investor and a big donor to Ed Lee’s campaign.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe last day of the poll was before I was interviewed on national television. That event has made a big difference in my public support, all favorable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Board of Supervisors President David Chiu<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cLast time I checked, polls and pundits didn\u2019t get to decide this election, voters do,\u201d said Chiu campaign spokesperson Addisu Demissie. \u201cThere are 22 days left in this campaign and David is going to keep spending his time talking to with those voters about his record of results, his vision for the future, and his desire to shake things up at City Hall.\u00a0 The more that voters learn about David Chiu, the more votes he will get – we remain extremely confident about that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bevan Dufty<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWhen I ran for Supervisor, the polls had me losing by 6% three days before the election,\u201d said former District 8 Supervisor Bevan Dufty.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am working harder and happier than ever.<\/p>\n

\u201cI take no offense at the Bay Citizen calling me a Zombie, Walking Dead<\/em> is one of the biggest hits this season.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut they are undeniably wrong.\u00a0 I raised $18,622 this weekend alone.<\/p>\n

\u201cGuess what? My commercial aired during the premiere of Walking Dead<\/em> last night.\u00a0 This poll was taken right when I started airing and I’ve been bowled over by all the people who stop me to say how they love my ads and positive approach.<\/p>\n

\u201cI will not break stride over the next 22 days, this is a marathon and I’m sprinting to the finish.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tony Hall<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Another sad example of newspapers trying to cement election outcomes before voters can even vote,\u201d said former District 7 Supervisor Tony Hall. \u00a0\u201cThey hide the full sample and cross-table detail necessary to critique the methodology, and yet they admit to the using suspect technique of sample-weighting. \u00a0We have our strongest materials ahead of us for these closing weeks and we expect they will change voters minds.”<\/p>\n

City Attorney Dennis Herrera<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Bay Citizen poll — like every poll — is a snapshot in time, which largely preceded the arrival of Voter Information Pamphlets and absentee ballots.\u00a0 It reflects the same uncertainty we’ve seen in the race for weeks,\u201d said Herrera campaign spokesperson Matt Dorsey.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe poll also shows that the incumbent mayor isn’t improving his standing with voters.\u00a0 Despite nearly $2 million in combined spending to push Lee’s candidacy, about 7 out of 10 voters aren’t picking him as their first choice for Mayor.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Bay Citizen poll also shows that voters remain unsure about their choices.\u00a0 More than one-fifth of voters are undecided on their first choice, with dramatically more voters undecided about second and third-choices, which will decide the outcome.\u00a0 So, the race is still wide open.<\/p>\n

\u201cDennis Herrera remains the top challenger to Ed Lee.\u00a0 Herrera is a proven vote-getter, and he’s the one candidate who has shown he can win as an underdog.\u00a0 He did it in 2001 as a candidate for City Attorney, and he can do it again.\u201d<\/p>\n

Joanna Rees<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cWith so many voters still undecided, Ed Lee\u2019s support declining amidst a growing web of ethical scandals, and with twenty-two days left, we know the only poll that counts is on November 8th,” said Rees Campaign Manager Nick Panagopoulos. “The fact is that most San Franciscans have only just begun receiving their ballots, evaluating the candidates and learning how to fully participate in the city\u2019s ranked-choice voting system.<\/p>\n

“An entrepreneur and educator with a record of results, Joanna Rees offers a real choice and stands apart in a field crowded with city hall insiders. She is waging an aggressive, grassroots campaign that\u2019s focused on creating jobs, strengthening schools, and bringing our city government out of the shadows and into the 21st century. And that\u2019s why every day, more and more San Franciscans are joining our campaign for new leadership and a new approach to city government.\u201d<\/p>\n

Senator Leland Yee<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cI’m not sure about the polling methodology used by the Bay Citizen, nor have I ever heard of the polling firm they used doing a political poll in San Francisco or elsewhere,\u201d said Yee campaign spokesperson Jim Stearns.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn my opinion, these numbers simply don’t reflect the reality that every one of the campaigns opposing Lee is experiencing on the ground — lots of undecided, a definite drop in Lee’s support, a wide open race.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe’re going to continue to run an aggressive, strong, grassroots campaign up through Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n

Responses from the campaigns to elect Public Defender Jeff Adachi and Assessor Phil Ting were not forthcoming at the time of publishing.\u00a0 Their responses will be added when\/if they respond.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

That\u2019s the takeaway message one gets a from the latest poll published by The Bay Citizen and the University of San Francisco in the early hours of Monday morning, the results of which has Lee winning after 9 rounds of ranked-choice ballot tabulations.<\/p>\n

New Jersey-based Maximum Research, Inc conducted the poll of 551 likely registered voters between October 7 and October 13. The poll was commissioned and paid for by the BayCitizen at a cost of $10,000, confirmed newly minted BayCitizen managing editor Steve Fainaru.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6267,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[222,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nBay Citizen Poll: The Mayor\u2019s Race is Over, Ed Lee\u2019s Your Next Mayor - Fog City Journal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fogcityjournal.com\/wordpress\/3116\/bay-citizen-poll-the-mayors-race-is-over-ed-lees-your-next-mayor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bay Citizen Poll: The Mayor\u2019s Race is Over, Ed Lee\u2019s Your Next Mayor - Fog City Journal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"That\u2019s the takeaway message one gets a from the latest poll published by The Bay Citizen and the University of San Francisco in the early hours of Monday morning, the results of which has Lee winning after 9 rounds of ranked-choice ballot tabulations. 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New Jersey-based Maximum Research, Inc conducted the poll of 551 likely registered voters between October 7 and October 13. 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