{"id":6254,"date":"2016-11-18T09:07:05","date_gmt":"2016-11-18T17:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fogcityjournal.com\/wordpress\/?p=6254"},"modified":"2016-11-18T11:12:41","modified_gmt":"2016-11-18T19:12:41","slug":"the-fall-of-the-democratic-party-what-happened-and-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fogcityjournal.com\/wordpress\/6254\/the-fall-of-the-democratic-party-what-happened-and-whats-next\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fall of the Democratic Party: What Happened and What’s Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"maxresdefault\"<\/p>\n

By\u00a0Ralph E. Stone<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

November 18, 2016<\/p>\n

Much has been written about the disaffection of likely Democratic voters in the just-held presidential election. \u00a0But this disaffection began long ago. Consider that in the middle of the Twentieth Century, the working class – once the core of the Democratic coalition – began\u00a0abandoning<\/a>\u00a0the Democratic Party. \u00a0In 1948, 66% of manual laborers voted for Democrats, as did 60% of farmers. \u00a0In 1964, it was 55% of working-class voters. \u00a0By 1980, it was 35%.<\/p>\n

The white working class in particular saw even sharper\u00a0declines.<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0In 2008, Democrats had a 15-point advantage among poor, white voters, but in\u00a02012 this had slipped to a 2-point advantage. \u00a0In 2012, among white voters making between $30,000 and $75,000 per year, the GOP had taken a 17-point lead.<\/p>\n

Franklin Delano Roosevelt set up his\u00a0New Deal<\/a>\u00a0in 1933 and forged a coalition of labor unions, liberals, religious, ethnic and racial minorities.\u00a0 Unfortunately for the Democrats, the twin forces of the Civil Rights Movement and the counterculture \u2014 civil rights, the Vietnam War, affirmative action\u00a0\u2014 caused a fracture in the party in the northern states.<\/p>\n

Then came the GOP’s “Southern Strategy<\/a>“, popularized by Richard Nixon, whereby the Republican Party consciously appealed to white southerners’ racial resentments in order to gain their support.\u00a0Under this strategy, the GOP didn’t need or actively seek the African-American vote.\u00a0From 1948 to 1984, the Southern states, once a Democrat stronghold, became key swing states, providing the popular vote margins in the 1960, 1968,\u00a0and 1976 elections. \u00a0Note that Trump won every state except Virginia below the Mason-Dixon line while Barack Obama won only Virginia and Florida.<\/p>\n

In 1965, the\u00a0Voting Rights Act<\/a>\u00a0was\u00a0signed into law by President Lyndon Johnson. \u00a0The Act’s aim was to overcome legal barriers at the state and local levels that prevented African Americans from exercising their right to\u00a0vote. \u00a0However, in 2013, the Supreme Court in\u00a0Shelby County v. Holder<\/em><\/a>, essentially\u00a0gutted the Voting Rights Act where the Court argued, \u201cit wasn’t necessary anymore.\u201d \u00a0The\u00a0Shelby<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>decision\u00a0led to sweeping changes in voting rules across states that had historically\u00a0discriminated\u00a0against minorities. These changes included new voter ID requirements as well as closing or changing locations of possibly thousands\u00a0of polling sites, that used to require federal approval. \u00a0Studies and some court rulings have said that ID laws have disproportionately impacted racial minorities, a group that tends to vote Democratic.<\/p>\n

In 2015, according to the\u00a0Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a>,\u00a0the percentage of wage and salary workers who were members of a union was 11.1 percent, down from 20.1 percent in 1983. Consider that union membership peaked in 1954 at 28.3 percent.\u00a0 Union membership is down partly due to the enactment of right-to-work laws. The\u00a01947 Taft-Hartley amendments<\/a>\u00a0to the National Labor Relations Act permitted a state to pass laws that prohibit unions from requiring a worker to pay dues, even when the worker is covered by a union-negotiated collective bargaining agreement.\u00a0\u00a0Twenty-five states have right-to-work laws. Thus, workers in right-to-work states have less incentive to join and pay dues to a union. \u00a0And unions have been a bulwark of the Democratic Party.<\/p>\n

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, had for decades voted for Democrat presidential candidates and pre-election polling pegged them for Hillary Clinton in 2016. The last time a Republican carried\u00a0Michigan and Pennsylvania was in 1988, and Wisconsin in 1984. \u00a0But\u00a0on Tuesday, the\u00a0three\u00a0“blue firewall”\u00a0states\u00a0went to Trump. \u00a0In the Democratic primaries, Bernie Sanders won Michigan and Wisconsin. Clinton did not even visit Wisconsin\u00a0during the general election.<\/p>\n

Today, some eight years after the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression, the nation’s economy was once again central to both parties’ appeal to voters.\u00a0 Under\u00a0Obama<\/a>, the economy continues to slowly expand.\u00a0 As of the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy is nearly 15 percent bigger than when Obama took office in 2008, adjusted for inflation. The Obama administration, which began in the midst of massive layoffs from the Great Recession, has presided over a job market turnaround. Overall employment is about 7% higher than when he took office.\u00a0 Yet voters forgot that the George W. Bush and the Republicans were responsible for the recession and failed to connect Clinton to the economic recovery under Obama.<\/p>\n

There is now a definite urban-rural divide in this country. Rural and small-town workers voted for Trump while in urban areas, where black and Hispanic voters are concentrated along with college-educated voters, already leaned toward the Democrats. \u00a0Clinton, however, did not get the turnout from these groups that she needed. African American voters did not show up in the same numbers they did for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.<\/p>\n

People tend to forget, however, the closeness of this past election. \u00a0While the final vote counts are not in, it appears that Hillary Clinton\u00a0is on course to receive more popular votes than any other U.S. presidential candidate in history except Barack Obama \u2013 despite losing the Electoral College vote to Donald Trump 306 to 232. \u00a0Alas, close only counts in horseshoes and hand-grenades.<\/p>\n

This is the fifth time the popular vote winner did not win in the Electoral College.\u00a0 Thus, calls for eliminating the Electoral College altogether and instead electing a president on the popular vote, is on the rise.\u00a0 The Electoral College is set forth in our Constitution and getting rid of it would require a constitutional amendment with a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate and the ratification of three-fourths (38) of the 50 states.\u00a0 Consider that Republicans have been the beneficiary of winning the Electoral College vote but not the popular vote in 2000 and 2016 and would be less likely to want to eliminate the Electoral College.\u00a0 It is unlikely that a Republican-controlled House and Senate would vote to eliminate the Electoral College. \u00a0Republicans now control governorships and legislatures in 24 states, 70 of the 99 state legislative chambers, both chambers in 30 states, plus Nebraska’s single chamber, and 31 governor mansions and you can see how difficult it would be to get ratification by 38 states.<\/p>\n

How did Trump get elected president?\u00a0 In a few words, it was Clinton\u2019s real and perceived baggage coupled with \u00a0Trump\u2019s successful appeal\u00a0to Americans\u2019 emotions and prejudices rather than their rational side.\u00a0 In defeat, Clinton\u00a0blamed<\/a>\u00a0the FBI Director\u2019s October 28, 2016\u00a0letter<\/a>\u00a0to Congress “in connection with the Secretary Clinton email investigation.”\u00a0 This letter and the FBI\u2019s election-eve absolvement came too late.<\/p>\n

What should the Democratic Party do now?\u00a0 It is time for the Democratic Party to undergo a fundamental reassessment. \u00a0The Democrats will shortly choose a new Democratic National Committee chairman, which could be a fight between the establishment wing of the party, embodied by Clinton, and the party\u2019s more liberal members, many of them aligned with Bernie Sanders. \u00a0Hopefully, the DNC will choose the latter as the DNC needs to be re-imagined as less of an insider\u2019s club focused on raising money and more of an advocate for the working-class. \u00a0With a new, reinvigorated DNC and a new nominee, the Democrats can begin working to take back the White House\u00a0in four years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Much has been written about the disaffection of likely Democratic voters in the just-held presidential election. 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