Hope Johnson
Photos by Luke Thomas

By Hope Johnson

February 17, 2009

FAQ

FCJ’s Elaine Santore correctly predicted my fifteen minutes of fame as San Francisco’s Best Political Mind 2008 would extend beyond traditional timing. Most continuously asked questions? How’d you do that? Are you psychic?

No, I’m not psychic. What kind of a question is that, anyway? If I were psychic, would I waste my time analyzing San Francisco district elections? Or would I play the lottery a little more often? Think about this carefully.

Here’s one way to predict political trends. Stay tuned. And practice long term memory retention. Frankly, it’s just like following The Young & the Restless or Mad Men.

Let’s start some tuning together. First, though, I’m not funny. I’m not, so get your disappointment on now. I know, Americans demand news on strictly comical terms. Hey, we can’t all be Jon Stewart.

Second, this is about analysis and discussion of political strategy. Free your mind.

Bevan, what did you do to Willie?

During Assemblymember Tom Ammiano’s open house last Thursday, District 8 Supervisor Bevan Dufty revealed he’s definitely running for mayor.

Former Mayor Willie Brown confirms Dufty’s run in his column this week. Brown bashes Bevan’s mayoral ambitions, alleging Dufty is “not going to be able to pull it together” and state Senator Mark Leno will “get the gay vote” should he run.

Former Mayor Willie Brown

Now, Willie’s column is worth reading only if one reads between the lines. Brown is a shrewd game player. It’s too early to predict if he’s supporting Leno, undermining Dufty, or setting up a divide within the politically strong LGBT vote for an as yet unnamed candidate not as popular among that demographic. Appears to me, though, Willie has some gripe with Bevan. Good one to keep your eye on.

President Chiu’s New Deal

News reports credit Board President David Chiu for negotiating a compromise between business, labor, and the Board of Supervisors that cancels a June special election. Smart as a whip but, with just over 30 days of service, does Chiu really have those connections?

Mayor Gavin Newsom has gone Where’s Waldo on the city but must have local watchdogs. Kudos to David Chiu if he is using the Mayor’s absence to improve the budget crisis. However, be on the lookout for the possibility Chiu is playing a political version of good cop v. bad cop with Newsom.

Good cop vs. bad cop? BOS Prez David Chiu and Mayor Gavin Newsom

In this game, Chiu’s name gets the connection with business so Newsom looks cleaner at a time when voters are suspicious of “secret” business dealings. Supervisor Dufty played a similar “bad cop” role during the Lennar Bayview project campaign. Dufty appeared publicly with Carmen Policy, spreading the belief the project was necessary to keep the 49ers in town. This left Newsom free to state he wasn’t sure about that, even though he supported the project. Cleaner for Newsom that way.

B2B NIMBYs

WTF is going on with the Bay to Breakers? While attempting to ban booze might be considered understandable, it’s window dressing and unenforceable. But banning floats?

If you really want to ban something, ban those corn tortillas. Have you ever been hit with one of those things?

I run in this race and the powers that be are raining on a fine tradition. B2B began in 1912 as an attempt to raise community spirit after the 1906 earthquake. Our neighborhoods have survived this race since long before we were born and will probably do quite well after we’re all dead.

Alix Rosenthal writes District 5 Supervisor Ross Mirkarimi will assist a group formed to save the race. Nice of him as he may share responsibility for the new rules.

Last May, Mirkarimi requested an investigation by the City Attorney into imposing “conditions and penalties” for future permits to limit “adverse conditions imposed upon host neighborhoods.” His choice of words at the Board meeting was overly dramatic, giving too much leeway to conservative power players. Mirkarimi described viewing “tortuous consequences” and “disaster zones.” Use some caution; if you give an inch, they’ll take a mile.

Oscars

Easy prediction: Slumdog Millionaire wins best picture.

Harder prediction: Trouble the Water wins documentary feature.

Fun Fact

Fog City Journal has a link on Assemblymember Tom Ammiano’s official web site!

Stay tuned.