Scientists advance earthquake
forecasting and detection

By Caitlin Cassady

October 17, 2007

Eighteen years after the Loma Prieta earthquake ravaged the Bay Area, geological scientists continue to make significant breakthroughs in earthquake research and forecasting.

California scientists are researching the ability to issue warnings about earthquakes before they happen, U.S. Geological Survey seismologist David Oppenheimer said.

Early warning systems would be able to detect shaking and inform the public of imminent danger, Oppenheimer said. Similar systems have been developed in Mexico, Taiwan and Japan, but the program is still in its research phase in the U.S.

"It is difficult for us (in the U.S.), because earthquake faults, especially those in California, are located in metropolitan areas, not offshore, hundreds of miles from areas of dense population,'' Oppenheimer said. "This makes it extremely difficult to warn residents, because there is not much warning time.''

Professor of geophysics at University of California, Berkeley Richard Allen said scientists are using an existing network of seismic stations to rapidly detect earthquake beginnings and assess the danger they pose to the general populace.

"We are only talking about a few seconds of warning,'' Allen said, "but even those few extra seconds can help before a major earthquake strikes.''

Allen said that scientists have algorithms running so that they can test the programs when earthquakes strike and see how well the warning system performs.

Oppenheimer says a three-year study funded by the USGS has just finished its first year and he is hopeful about the findings so far.

Another new tool the USGS is using is a system called Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response, Oppenheimer said. PAGER is a program that predicts the impact an earthquake will have on any specific location in the world. The program takes into account infrastructure, building codes and performance as well as population density. PAGER then takes the magnitude of the earthquake and assesses the extent of the potential damage.

"This could potentially halt communications blackouts such as the one experienced after the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan,'' Oppenheimer said.

With the PAGER program Red Cross and other relief organizations can see if they will need to respond to a catastrophe before a community or region even sends out a call for relief.

The Internet has allowed the public to participate in earthquake technology, Oppenheimer said. USGS puts every bit of information they compute about any given earthquake on its Web site so that people can track earthquakes in their region, or just learn more about tectonic movement.

Because earthquakes are so prevalent in the Bay Area, new technology and emergency preparedness are vital to the survival of the region.

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